Projection of the Year 2050 Burden of Diabetes in the U.S. Adult Population: Dynamic Modeling of Incidence, Mortality, and Prediabetes Prevalence

This Population Health Metrics article projects that annual new cases of diagnosed diabetes incidence will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050.

As the rate of diabetes incidence continues to rise, researchers project that up to 33% of the U.S. adult population could have the disease by 2050, up from 14% in 2010.

These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the U.S. population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on the national diabetes burden. Data analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.